How to open a cafe and not go broke. Risk assessment in the catering industry during the economic crisis

Summary: To open a restaurant, first of all, you need a concept. However, for your establishment to be successful, just an idea is not enough. This is a process whose success depends on many factors. Ignorance of which is the main reason for the collapse in the catering industry. Most new restaurants close within their first year of operation. After reading our article, you can easily bypass risk factors and make the right decision in a difficult situation.

If you decide to open your own restaurant, you should know how successful this business is during times of economic instability and boldly move forward despite setbacks. Try not to listen to pessimistic “advisers”. When your establishment receives satisfied regular customers, you will understand that the efforts were not in vain.

Dangers of the first year of operation of a cafe or restaurant

If you have already opened a restaurant, then you have already experienced all the first problems of growth and development. The first year is by far the most important; it sets the rhythm for the development of the institution. The question is: “will it take off or not?” However, even if it “takes off” and visitors come to you, do not relax. Statistically, not all restaurants fail in their first year. Professor Dr. HG Parsa conducted research and concluded that 59% of restaurants fail within three years.

Why is your restaurant at a loss?

I met people from different areas of public catering - from the owners of a simple pizzeria to the director of an elite restaurant. They all already have some experience in running their own business. After talking with them, I decided to highlight the main reasons that lead to failures:

Small starting capital
Poor knowledge of the competitive market
Restaurant location is in the wrong place
Bad advertising campaign
Failures in service quality
Poor work organization
Lack of correct accounting
Inability to manage personnel
Unoriginal approach to business

Every novice restaurateur (this also applies to experienced ones) is simply obliged to analyze every item on this list. And don’t even try to reassure yourself and praise yourself. Be honest with yourself.

Here are some important notes on each of these points:

Insufficient start-up capital is a problem for new restaurateurs

Opening a restaurant is an expensive project. And before you get started, draw up a business plan. Remember: Even the simplest business plan is better than no business plan.

Depending on the type of restaurant, you need a minimum of $30,000. To open my bar, I took out a loan and had some of my own savings. The loan rate is something that must be included in the business plan. Be sure to take into account all future expenses, because otherwise you will not only not make a profit, but also will not be able to pay your debts.

Pre-opening spending tips:

There is no need to spend a huge amount of money on decoration. First of all, you need to consider the purchase of expensive equipment.
Treat borrowed money the same way you treat your savings. Be smart and frugal. All expenses that you have not planned for in your business plan should be carefully considered.
If you encounter legal or financial difficulties, savings will come to the rescue. Save them for a rainy day.

During the first year, you need to have enough money to deal with issues that will arise during the operation of your restaurant. Since you're just starting out, you won't be able to anticipate every expense.

Pay special attention to the following:

High rent for premises. When initially choosing a location for your restaurant, think about whether you have enough money to pay monthly rent. This is the most important point of your plan.
Not enough money, but no profit yet? The starting capital should include an amount that can cover any financial problem without expecting profit. Create an insurance reserve from savings.
There are no small things in business. Finding a supplier for a restaurant or bar, creating a menu, working with staff, protecting against theft and fraud - all these are mandatory items.

Assessing restaurant business competitors and profitability

In any business, success depends on market research. If you know where your competitors have fallen short, which bar is more visited, etc. you will be able to analyze the success of your future establishment. Owning a restaurant is more than just renting premises, design, hiring staff, etc. You must be prepared for the fact that you will not have any free time in the first year. This is best illustrated by the following statistic: More than 35% of restaurants fail in their first year, while franchises only have a 10% failure rate.

Why are franchises more successful than independent restaurants?

Franchise owners spend the most on marketing research. Their risk of going bankrupt is minimized - many years of successful experience in operating the network allows them to simply acquire the right to open an equally profitable location. Owning your own business has much more risk, and when buying a franchise you don’t have to think about the concept of the restaurant.

If you do not have a franchise and are opening on your own, then do not hesitate to use the positive experience of others. Study your competitors and colleagues, learn and apply them in your work.

Place for your restaurant

The location of your restaurant is one of the most important tasks. It is after choosing a location and identifying the target audience that you can develop the concept of your establishment. It should be borne in mind that depending on the type of establishment, you will have to choose a place to open. You should not open an elite restaurant in a residential area.

If you want visitors to come to you during lunch for business lunches or dinner after a hard day, choose a place with convenient transport links, industrial centers and offices nearby.

Sleeping areas are an ideal environment for relaxing with the whole family, celebrating holidays and just an evening with friends. It is also very important to take into account the presence of competitors in your chosen area. Visit their establishments and look at the organization of work.

No promotion - no profit at the cafe cash desk

In the age of technology and the Internet, it is necessary to take into account that people learn about new places not from newspapers and rumors, but on websites, social networks and forums. Be sure to think about how you will promote your restaurant. A competent advertising campaign will ensure an influx of new visitors immediately in the first days and weeks of operation. Don't skimp on restaurant advertising. But don’t waste your money on outdated advertising media. Think about your target audience: where they live, where they work, where they visit, and what they read. A successful marketing move is the most important thing for a new establishment. However, this is a topic for a large separate article on promoting the restaurant business. Subscribe to the Blog.

Drawing up a menu and determining the restaurant's pricing policy

The main mistake of a novice restaurateur is including his favorite dishes on the menu. All people have a specific taste, especially since the dishes do not always coincide with the concept of the establishment. It is very important to adapt the restaurant menu to the audience.

Pay special attention to the menu design and price of dishes. Carefully compare cost, price of ingredients and profit. If you set your price too high, you can't expect your guests to come back. The price of your food should be commensurate with the quality of preparation and service you offer.

Poor work organization in a restaurant

If your partner also has ownership rights to the business, then you should be prepared for the problems that arise in your relationship with your partner.

Business and relationships are incompatible, and therefore it is very difficult to remain friends and at the same time have a common cause. Financial risks, problems with documentation - all these are situations that can ruin a friendship. You and your partner should take care of each other in creating a work environment. Many restaurants were at risk of bankruptcy due to numerous disputes and conflicts among their owners.

Partners must cooperate and decide together how best to get out of a difficult situation. They must look at the facts objectively and analyze the situation. You must define the “common ground” and the meaning of the relationship.

For a good partnership, it is necessary to clearly understand and distribute the contribution of each participant to the business. Partners must be confident that together they can achieve the desired result. The best solution is to distribute responsibilities at the initial stage.

And the cornerstone of success is the organization of work aimed at satisfying your customers. You need to make your subordinates feel your support and care about visitors.

Restaurant owners do everything possible to ensure that their establishment has the best service, forgetting to study the customer base for their restaurant. If you understand your guests, you can meet all their requirements and exceed all expectations. Understanding customers should be a priority for restaurant development. Try to put yourself in the visitor's shoes. Study the menu carefully and analyze which items are ordered most often. Ask clients to evaluate the quality of service and listen carefully to their wishes and suggestions.

Lack of accounting, control and analysis of the restaurant business

In order to optimize work in a restaurant, special attention should be paid to inventory, accounting and warehouse management. Reducing unnecessary expenses and preventing staff fraud are very important points in running a restaurant business.

According to statistics, a bar's monthly profit loses about 20% of sales due to theft. Now think about how much money you will lose every month just like that.

Pay special attention to accounting and analysis of your restaurant business. Choose carefully. Don't buy the cheapest and free programs, they are useless. But don’t go for expensive ones, unless of course you are opening an elite large chain of restaurants. Choosing the best POS program specifically for your establishment will significantly affect the optimization of operations.

Change in quality of service

If your restaurant has good service and a thoughtful menu, this is a guarantee that you will have visitors. If only in the first year of operation you tried to serve everyone as comfortably as possible, set reasonable prices, etc., and then over time reduced the quality of work and food, do not expect your regular customers to return again.

Maintain the quality of service in your restaurant at the same level and try to constantly improve it. In order to make a good profit and have regular visitors, it is very important not to change the recipes of dishes or try to save money on their preparation. People want to come back to you just because they liked something.

This does not mean at all that the menu does not need to be improved. New items, seasonal dishes or a new interior detail - all this should be present. Clients should see that you are trying for them, creating something new.

Customers always want one thing – delicious food at a reasonable price. If they feel like they didn't get enough food for their money, or the portions were too small, guess where they'll head? To your competitors.

Lack of original ideas for a restaurant

In the modern world, it is very difficult to create something original and well thought out. Therefore, new restaurateurs often make the mistake of opening a restaurant without their own “zest.” Before you think about the concept of your restaurant, attend trainings, go to conferences, study the market and see which restaurants are making good profits.

Even if you opened a family restaurant with steaks and fries, people should want to come to you. Think about what exactly your establishment should appeal to visitors.

Results: Now that you know all the pitfalls of the restaurant business, you can explore the market and create an establishment that will bring you not only joy, but also profit.

Regardless of your plans, a restaurant may fail in its first year or its second. However, you must remember - if you work hard and put your soul into what you love, it will definitely give results.

Your Master Rurto

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Running a food business is not an easy task. If you are looking for a guide on how to start a restaurant business for dummies, then this article will be useful for you.

Recently, the restaurant business has become increasingly popular. But there are already too many competitors on the market, and to earn trust, you need to try.

Like any other business, developing a restaurant business requires drawing up a detailed business plan, not just an idea. It should contain items such as:

Identify features, conduct market and competitor analysis.
Registering a business, obtaining the necessary permits, during which the relevant documents must be issued.
Choosing an establishment format.
Calculate expenses and profits to find out the upcoming costs of the restaurant business.
A plan outlining the production of an establishment.
Detailed business organization plan.
A basic marketing plan that will help you successfully organize this business.
Stages of opening your own restaurant business.
Risk analysis, where you need to describe all possible problems.

Opening stages

For those who are just learning the basics of such a business, it is important to follow all the stages of opening your own restaurant business and not forget anything. During the course, you can find out whether you can implement all the ideas, successfully manage catering alone, or open a family restaurant business.

The first step is to register your own restaurant business, obtain documents and permits from institutions.
Then decide on the concept, describe the ideas and features of the future establishment.
Based on the previous point, a room is selected and design ideas appear.
Hire staff to provide quality service to the establishment.
Buy everything you need.
Create a restaurant menu. A variety of cuisine will successfully affect the profit of the establishment.
Set a date for the establishment of the restaurant. To attract your first customers, you can organize an interesting holiday or show program.

Registering your business

Before carrying out any income-generating activity, you must register with the tax service. Otherwise, conducting restaurant activities without registration will result in criminal, tax and administrative liability.

There are several registration options, but a limited liability company is suitable for a small restaurant business, since individual entrepreneurs are not allowed to sell alcoholic beverages. You also have the right to choose the form of taxation; the most advantageous would be a simplified scheme, in which a legal entity will pay 6% of total income or 15% of net profit. But in addition to registering an LLC, you will need to collect various documents to obtain permission to open a restaurant business.

If you don’t understand at all where to start your restaurant, then you can turn to lawyers for help.

Market and competitor analysis

Before opening a restaurant from scratch, you need to thoroughly study your direct competitors and the features of the business. You need to choose the direction of the restaurant business, calculate its expected profitability, costs, and prospects. This will help you figure out whether it is profitable to open an establishment.

Perhaps you decide to open a pastry restaurant where you will bake cakes, pastries and make ice cream in front of visitors. You need to come up with a new business innovation that people will come to you for.

Look at what places in a large city or province such institutions are located, what they feed there, what entertainment programs they offer, identify all the strengths and weaknesses of the institutions. You need to try to find out as much as possible about the restaurant companies competing with you, this also includes the interior of the premises, suppliers of champagne and wine, and additional services provided to visitors. All this will help in choosing a strategy for making big profits and will give a chance to eliminate problems.

Restaurant format options

The format of the establishment can also have a successful impact on business. You can create various ideas that will attract a lot of customers, since innovation in the hotel restaurant business does not stand still.

Theme restaurant.
Bar or modern beer pub.
Democratic family restaurant.
An elite establishment for businessmen.

An innovative approach will increase profitability in such a business:

Availability of free Wi-Fi.
Electronic option for ordering dishes.
Open kitchen.
Molecular cuisine.

These creative innovations will ensure success for your business and bring in a lot of money even in the regions.

Organizational plan

In this section of the restaurant business plan, you need to clearly distribute the responsibilities of the staff, describe step-by-step actions and ideas for starting a business. Then things will go faster and easier.

Find an experienced restaurant manager. Write down what each employee of your establishment will be responsible for. Then it is possible to determine exactly how many waiters, cooks, and cleaners should be hired for the business. Write down the menu. Based on this point, you can calculate the correct amount of certain products. Arrange all the actions taken to open a restaurant in order, then you can really find out what to take on later.

For convenience, you can choose a business partner or organize a family restaurant business, since managing an establishment alone is not easy.

Production plan

After you have collected all the documents, you can move on to the next point in the restaurant business plan.

The first step of the production plan is to select a suitable location where the profitability of this business will justify itself. Restaurant premises can be rented, purchased or built. It all depends only on the financial capabilities of the aspiring entrepreneur.

The size of the establishment must comply with the current law of the Russian Federation, that is, 10 square meters for two seats. Accordingly, if in the future you plan to increase the capacity of a small restaurant, then the area of the hall should expand.

The second step in the production business plan is to decide on the design of the establishment’s hall. Ideas can be different and depend only on your imagination.

Once we have decided on the room and its design, we move on to compiling a list of the equipment we need for the kitchen and living room. At the same time, you need to choose only high-quality equipment for the restaurant business.

For kitchen:

Refrigerators and freezers.
Small kitchen appliances. This includes meat grinders, coffee makers, blenders, and so on.
Cooking plates.
Ovens.
Grill, if the menu is designed for such dishes.
Comfortable tables for chefs.
Large sinks and dishwashers.

For the hall:

Tables where visitors will eat.
Chairs or sofas.
Beautiful dishes and cutlery;

As for restaurant kitchen equipment, it is better to choose it among imported ones and not skimp on price. As for the items for decorating the hall, you can purchase Russian tables and chairs; here the main role is played by the aesthetic appearance and the embodiment of the design idea, and not by the cost.

The fourth step involves developing a menu for the restaurant. It should have a good selection of dishes. It is best if several different cuisines of the world are represented at once.

The fifth point of the business plan is the selection of personnel to serve the establishment. The standard list of hired workers should consist of:

Several chefs, depending on the chosen cuisine.
Waiters. Their number depends on the expected size of the restaurant.
A cleaning lady to ensure that the living room and kitchen are always clean.

You can do the recruitment yourself or entrust this work to a professional agency for a fee, which will save your time and you will get a high-quality result for your business.

Marketing plan

To attract customers, you need to pay special attention to the restaurant sign and a variety of effective advertising. The design of the sign, of course, depends on the imagination of the establishment’s manager, but it should be bright and memorable. As for advertising, these could be:

As mentioned earlier, there are various interesting ideas and innovations in such a business.
Advertisements in local media (newspapers, television, radio).
Advertising on city blogs, forums and websites.
Distributing your restaurant flyers in crowded places.
Introduction of a discount system, bonuses, promotions.

You can hire a specially trained person to manage the marketing of your establishment. He knows all the features of advertising well and will successfully implement all his ideas.

Financial plan

Any business requires initial and monthly investments. And at this point you can understand in detail the question of how much it costs to organize a restaurant.

Initial and monthly investments (in rubles):

Rent of premises - about 60,000, depending on the city and size. You will have to pay monthly.
Or buy it once, if your budget allows - about 300,000.
Renovation of the premises - 150,000–200,000.
Purchase of restaurant equipment for business – 150,000–200,000.
Furniture for the hall – 100,000–150,000.
Staff salaries are 80,000–100,000, which is a monthly cost.
Purchase of ingredients for restaurant dishes - about 50,000 every month.
Advertising to attract customers to your business – 10,000–15,000 monthly.
Monthly taxes to the state are about 30,000.
Monthly utility costs are approximately 30,000.

And the approximate total income is 500,000 rubles monthly. Subtracting all costs from this, you can get an average net profit of 100,000 rubles. The restaurant will pay for itself in less than a year of operation.

Risk analysis

By making calculations of various restaurant risks, you can prepare for everything and learn how to avoid problems.

The calculation of the risk table consists of:

Possible increase in prices for products used to prepare restaurant dishes.
Insufficient demand for products or its absence at all.
Also, competitors may lower prices in order to lure customers away from your restaurant business.
Poor solvency of potential consumers.
Raising government taxes.
Deterioration in the quality of raw materials used in the restaurant business.
Insufficient funds for expenses.

After drawing up such a detailed business plan, instructions from scratch, every aspiring entrepreneur will know: opening your own restaurant is not difficult, the main thing is to satisfy the gastronomic taste of the client, manage competently and follow your goal. Then you will be able to open a high-quality business that will be successfully sold on the market and bring good profits.

Despite the crisis situation in the country, people continue to spend their money on products for children, medicines and food. Since food is included in the list of essential goods, it is not customary to skimp on it. In this regard, restaurant owners are among the entrepreneurs who have not experienced any global changes. The restaurant business can thrive and generate income even in an unstable economic situation. This explains the desire of many to build their business in this area. However, it is worth understanding that opening a catering establishment is not for everyone. There are many subtleties and nuances in this matter. Let's take a closer look at this process.

A successful restaurant concept – what is it?

The aspiring restaurateur in his imagination draws pictures of delicious Peking duck, delicious sushi, delicious Italian pasta and the smiles of satisfied customers. In order to bring an idea to life, it is necessary to choose a competent concept. It depends on it whether your project will be successful or fail. It is also necessary to decide on the type of restaurant and type of cuisine:

It is also worth noting that the fast food concept will generate income only if a network of inexpensive establishments is created, which will be united by the brand. An elite restaurant with steep prices must find its audience. The most promising will be the opening of an establishment with attentive service, affordable prices, an accessible menu and distinctive “tricks”.

Before opening a restaurant, you need to analyze important indicators:

assortment of finished products, complexity of the preparation and sales process;
technical equipment, layout, interior and material resources;
personnel qualifications;
forms of service;
population (analysis of potential visitors);
provision of related services.

Key benefits and risks

The main advantage of the restaurant business is making a profit. The restaurant's income will be noticeable if a successful concept is chosen and in the course of painstaking work aimed at the active development of the establishment.

financial (regular expenses for food, perishable products, payments to suppliers);
documentary (documentation deficiencies);
human factor (unscrupulous staff or visitors);
active competition.

To minimize risks, it is necessary to carefully develop a business plan. Subject to compliance with legal regulations, coordination of permits, competent analysis of competitors, territory and potential visitors, environment and market conditions, any risks will become advantages.

Phased opening

Service personnel are selected together with a specialist

Good cuisine and modern equipment are the heart of the restaurant

Products must be purchased from reliable and trusted suppliers. This guarantees the quality of cooking. To eliminate the risks associated with possible failures in food delivery, it is necessary to have the coordinates of 5-8 large suppliers.

As for the menu, the standard list of dishes in an affordable price category should contain about five types of hot dishes made from meat, the same number from fish and about two or three from poultry. In a more expensive restaurant, the assortment increases. To analyze consumption, it is not enough to use computer programs - you need to periodically visit the washing shop to see which dishes are not popular.

You should choose the best innovative equipment for your restaurant. It should be compact, productive, economical, easy to maintain and operate. Cheap furniture will lose its appearance in a year. For this reason, we buy expensive and high-quality furniture made from modern materials.

Additional features to attract visitors

Convenient location, amazing cuisine, excellent service – the list doesn’t end there. The introduction of additional “tricks” will help the establishment stand out from the crowd, become memorable and desirable.

Restaurants most often use a bar as one of them. Many visitors can visit the bar during the day without going into the main hall. This move gives the restaurant another 40% of its daily revenue.

The takeaway food service is very popular. In today's fast-paced world, people sometimes don't have time to prepare dinner. It is easier for such customers to order takeaway food from a place they know and love. Also, many companies order lunch from restaurants for office employees.

No less common is the possibility of preparing baby or diet food. Many restaurants are losing their customers due to the inability to serve their young children. In addition, during Lent, establishments that include Lenten dishes on their menus are especially popular.

Expenses and income

Capital figures may differ significantly from regional ones. Thus, opening a restaurant in Moscow can cost five million rubles. It will take one year to pay for the establishment. If during the specified period of time the restaurant does not reach a net profit, you should think about the feasibility of its continued existence. If the establishment is in demand and the average check increases daily, it is worth assuming that the future profit of the capital’s establishment will be about 10 million rubles per year.

Two million rubles are enough to start a restaurant business in the regions.

The revenue indicator is affected by seasonality and location of the facility. The average profitability in the country is 40-60%. When the outlet opens, traffic will be low. But with good advertising, delicious cuisine, smart pricing policy, and a high level of service, the situation will definitely change. Only a satisfied client becomes a permanent one!

Table of expenses when opening a restaurant

How to open a restaurant (video)

To summarize, I would like to remind you of the main concept of any restaurant. Thus, the visitor will be able to forgive the establishment for its nondescript interior, modest wine list, and the absence of the desired dish on the menu. But he will never forgive the restaurant for its dry attitude, as if it were not treating a guest. Chain establishments are distinguished by streamlined service - the client is ready for this. But when he goes to a restaurant, he wants to receive not only a delicious dinner, but also pleasant service. According to statistics, people who become regulars at restaurants are people who are too lonely. In order for the client to always return to his favorite establishment, it is important for him to provide an environment better than at home.

* The calculations use average data for Russia

From 940,000 ₽

Starting investments

1,170,000 RUR

350,000 ₽

Net profit

6-30 months

Payback period

Do you dream of opening your own bar? We offer you a step-by-step guide to achieving a dream that can bring you 4 million dollars in profit in a year.

Step 1. Assess the market and idea

The initial step for any business idea should be its evaluation. Ask yourself: is this required by the market? What is the level of competition? Why do you need to build a business in this direction?

In recent years, the culture of public catering has been actively developing in Russia. As a result, the rapid growth in the number of establishments and the variety of offers that form the special interest of Russians in eating out. Even during an economic crisis, the population does not refuse to visit catering establishments, although they try to save on this type of expense. According to experts, the domestic catering market has growth prospects because it is quite capacious. Consequently, the catering industry is still relevant and promising.

ADVANTAGES	FLAWS
high business profitability (up to 50%); quick return on investment; no need for a large staff; narrowly targeted, specific niche; high income due to mark-ups on alcoholic products; high demand for such establishments among the population; relatively small amount of investment for the industry; possibility of business scaling	high level of competition in the market; expensive rental of retail space; difficulty in organizing a business; the need to obtain a license to sell alcoholic beverages; business requires constant involvement of the entrepreneur

Step 2. Define the concept of the establishment

First you need to decide on the concept of the future establishment. This will depend on:

identifying the target audience;

selection of premises;

visitor service form;

territorial location.

In addition, a well-chosen concept is a good competitive advantage. When the market offers many different establishments, only those who offer an interesting concept can stand out and attract their customers. That's why this stage of opening a bar is so important.

When defining the concept of an establishment, you should understand what target audience it will be aimed at. The concept of a bar also involves the development of a menu, stylistic interior design, methods of customer service, musical accompaniment, “tricks” of the establishment, pricing policy, and so on. For a clearer understanding of what a bar format can be, let's look at a few examples.

Basic concepts of bars:

Classic bar. The hall is divided into two zones: a bar counter where visitors can order signature drinks, as well as an area equipped with tables and sofas designed to accommodate 4-8 people at the same time. The bar offers a wide range of alcoholic drinks and popular snacks. This format involves the organization of entertainment events: discos, karaoke. Therefore, it is worth providing a dance floor.

Bar-pub. This format refers to beer halls where visitors are offered several types of beer and various snacks. A more expensive type of such establishments are pubs offering craft beer or microbreweries. In such establishments, it is recommended to install screens for viewing popular sporting events.

Theme bar. This can be the format of a classic bar or pub, the main feature of which is a distinct theme. What could it be? A bar dedicated to a specific musical genre, film, director, cars, and so on. You can look at ideas implemented in other cities and even countries.

Depending on the chosen concept, the target audience is determined. It's wide enough for bars. The main category of consumers are young people aged 18 to 35 years, regardless of income level.

Step 3. We are looking for a suitable place, planning the renovation of the premises

For any catering establishment, the right location plays an important role. Finding premises for a bar is determined by a number of important nuances. One of the most common options is non-residential premises located on the ground floor of a multi-storey building. But it should be borne in mind that the nature of the establishment may disturb the residents of the house, so the most suitable option would be a separate non-residential building, on the ground floor of which you can set up a bar. Its location itself is not so important, although it must meet certain requirements. On the one hand, good traffic will attract the attention of new visitors. On the other hand, with proper organization of the establishment itself, the location can be somewhat neglected and save on rental costs. The main condition for the location of the bar is the convenience and safety of the entrance or approach to the establishment.

But for the premises of the future bar there are more requirements; it should be selected especially carefully. Each premises intended for a catering establishment undergoes a thorough inspection by government agencies - the sanitary and epidemiological station, Rospotrebnadzor, and the fire inspectorate. Strict requirements are imposed on the arrangement of the kitchen and ventilation, compliance with working area standards, finishing materials, organization of food storage, etc. In addition, the functionality of the premises should be assessed - the possibility of redevelopment, the presence of all communications (water supply and sewerage, electricity, gas) that will ensure the uninterrupted operation of the establishment. Particular attention should be paid to electrical power, since food processing equipment consumes a lot of electricity. We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the basic requirements set out in Law No. 171-FZ, which regulates the circulation of alcohol.

Another frequently asked question: whether to buy a property or rent it. As practice shows, it is not advisable to buy a building at the initial stage. It is better to invest initial investments in purchasing good equipment, creating an attractive interior, and promoting the establishment. However, when drawing up a lease agreement, it is recommended to immediately stipulate the possible purchase of real estate in the future. Also pay attention to the length of the rental period. It will not be profitable for you to move to another place in a year or two: firstly, you will have to spend a significant amount on the move; secondly, the loss of a “promoted” place can deprive the establishment of a share of the clientele. Therefore, it is worth discussing in detail with the tenant all the nuances of the contract.

Ready ideas for your business

The area of the room depends on how compactly the clients will be accommodated and on the total capacity. Taking into account the experience of the existence of drinking establishments, 150-200 sq. m is quite enough. Depending on the layout and method of arranging furniture, such a room can easily accommodate from 30 to 60 people. It should be taken into account that the entire area is divided into separate rooms: the main hall, kitchen, utility rooms, bathroom. At least 60 sq.m. should be allocated for the kitchen, and 100 sq.m. for the hall for visitors.

The average rent for a normal bar premises is about 100-150 thousand rubles, depending on the location and features of the premises. We advise you to pay attention to the premises that previously housed catering establishments. This will avoid unnecessary expenses and speed up the process of opening a bar. Now you can find many options for suitable premises, in which the space is divided into zones, the kitchen is equipped with ventilation and hoods, and the living room is equipped with an air conditioning system. Renting such premises may cost a little more, but the benefits from them will be greater. It's easier than starting to arrange everything from scratch.

Ready ideas for your business

Also, when choosing a room, you should focus on how the bar’s interior is supposed to look. Different concepts will require different planning solutions. During the renovation process, you need to focus, first of all, on convenience and comfort for visitors. Tables should be large, capable of seating 6-8 people, and sofas or chairs should be comfortable. It is advisable that each table be in relative isolation from each other, because the privacy of a group is also a kind of comfort. Repair costs can be completely different: it all depends on the idea, the materials used and whether you use the services of a designer or not. That is why it is quite difficult to name the exact amount of repair costs. The average cost of repairing and finishing the premises is about 200 thousand rubles.

Particular attention should be paid to the interior, which creates the right atmosphere and supports the theme of the establishment. The interior plays not only an aesthetic role, but also allows you to create the “features” of the establishment, a memorable corporate style. This makes the interior an effective tool in promoting the bar. It is better to entrust the creation of an interior to a professional designer. Then you will be able to create a unique space in the bar where people will want to spend time and where they will want to return.

Step 4. Prepare documents

Having decided on the premises for the future bar, you need to start collecting all the necessary documentation. This process is quite labor-intensive and includes several areas. For convenience, we will consider each separately.

Registration of an organization. The legal form of an enterprise depends on the format of the establishment. If the bar sells strong alcohol, a license will be required, which is issued only by LLC. If the bar will only sell beer, then a license is not required for this and you can limit yourself to individual entrepreneurs. According to the new OKVED classification, you should choose 56.30 as the type of activity

Preparation of documents for premises

Registering a cash register and registering it with the tax authorities.

Obtaining permits from the SES and fire service.

Registration of all necessary documentation at the sanitary and epidemiological station, which is required to start the operation of a catering establishment.

The final stage is obtaining a license to sell alcohol. To do this, you need to provide a list of documents.

Documents required to open a bar

A photocopy of the receipt for payment of the state fee, constituent documentation, papers confirming state registration.

Conclusion of the SES.

Certificate of absence of arrears in payment of taxes and penalties.

A comprehensive list of documents required to obtain a license can be obtained from the local licensing authority.

The license is issued for a period of 1 year if the establishment complies with the following requirements:

a room larger than 50 sq.m;

availability of necessary communications - plumbing, electrical wiring, heating;

distance of at least 100 meters from educational, medical and sports institutions.

The cost of the license will be 70 thousand rubles. We also draw your attention to the fact that since 2016, registration in the Unified State Automated Information System (USAIS) is mandatory for everyone involved in the sale of alcoholic beverages. This system was created to combat counterfeit alcohol. The penalty for neglecting registration is a fine of up to 200,000 rubles.

Now let’s once again briefly list the list of documents that will be needed to open a bar:

Documents on state registration of the enterprise.

Documentation confirming the right to work on the premises: lease agreement or certificate of owner.

Permission from the SES and Fire Service.

Agreements for waste removal, disinfection, staff sanitary records.

Production control program.

License for the sale of alcoholic beverages.

Step 5. We purchase equipment

To open a bar you will need various categories of equipment, namely:

Ready ideas for your business

Furniture(tables, sofas, chairs, bar counter).
Refrigeration equipment(refrigerators, wine display cases, bar equipment).
Thermal equipment(ovens, stoves, thermal display cases, barbecue makers, and so on).
Bar equipment(blenders, coffee grinders, mixers, toasters, juicers, etc.).
Electromechanical equipment(vegetable slicers, bread slicers, etc.).

Moreover, do not forget about sinks, trash cans, cabinets, ventilation umbrellas, scales, distribution lines, shelves, and so on. In general, you need to spend approximately 200 thousand rubles on the purchase of kitchen equipment for a small-scale bar.

The list is provided for informational purposes only and can be adjusted according to the preferences of the entrepreneur. You should also consider the cost of furniture for decorating the main room. For a bar with 60 seats, you will need the following set of furniture: 20 double sofas and 8 large tables, 12 chairs and 6 small tables for two, a bar counter and 6 bar stools, as well as shelves for alcohol. Costs for furniture and decor of the bar will range from 150 thousand rubles.

Step 6. Create a menu, organize supplies

At this stage, you should determine the composition of the menu, the list of dishes, their cost and selling price. To calculate the cost of a dish, you will need a technological map, which is also necessary to obtain permission from the SES. The flow chart indicates the consumption of products per serving and the volume of this serving. To determine what to form a menu from, you can study competitors' offers. It makes no sense to include some complex dishes aimed at gourmets on the bar menu. The menu will consist of various drinks and snacks. Still, it is recommended to provide signature cocktails and one signature dish, which can become the “feature” of the establishment.

When the menu is ready, you should decide on suppliers and establish supply channels. Main categories of bar suppliers:

meat and poultry supplier;

supplier of fresh vegetables and herbs;

supplier of alcoholic beverages;

supplier of various snacks (chips, nuts, etc.);

tea/coffee/drink suppliers.

For certain categories of supplies that provide the main menu, it is recommended to enter into exclusive contracts with one proven and reliable supplier. It should be noted that when signing partnership agreements, you can count on additional bonuses for the company - for example, beverage suppliers usually provide the establishment with branded glassware and equipment.

When agreeing on cooperation with suppliers, it is necessary to familiarize yourself with all the conditions specified in the contract. Typically, shipping costs for ingredients will be borne by your operation. To reduce this cost item, you should choose suppliers that are closer to your establishment. The required amount of raw materials is determined based on the menu, technological map for preparing products and the expected sales volume. It is important that the recipe of the dishes complies with GOSTs or separately adopted specifications.

Since in restaurant practice there is often a supply agreement with deferred payment terms, the initial investment in working capital should be no more than 30% of the total cost of dishes in the first billing month.

Step 7. Planning promotion

One of the important points when opening a bar is preparing and implementing an effective marketing strategy. It includes the development of the name of the establishment, its logo and corporate identity; organization of an advertising campaign (promotions, promotion tools).

A bright and memorable name will make the establishment stand out from the many offers on the catering market and emphasize its concept. It is also worth considering the costs of a catchy, attention-grabbing sign. You will have to spend approximately 30 thousand rubles on this type of expense. To prevent advertising costs from eating up a significant part of the budget, promotion channels should be used rationally. The target audience of bars is young people aged 18 to 35 years. Advertising should be placed where potential customers are.

To promote your bar, you can use various marketing tools: promotional videos in the cinema; online promotion; sponsorship participation in cultural projects; installation of billboards and signs; distributing business cards, flyers or menu brochures; event marketing; advertising in the media; radio advertising; participation in food exhibitions and fairs; loyalty programs, promotions and so on. Not so long ago, a fashion appeared for intellectual games that are held on the basis of the establishment. This is a very effective promotion tool that allows you to attract additional audiences.

Advertising on social networks aimed at young people is also an effective method. Within the framework of social networks, you can hold a “happy repost” campaign, “review competition”, etc. This tool is aimed at attracting additional audiences. You can also provide a “happy hour” promotion - the time during which the establishment offers discounts, a special menu (for example, business lunches), etc. The use of this advertising tool should be subject to the following recommendations:

planning promotions for weekdays;

increasing the price of the most popular menu items to cover cost differences;

a short and clear slogan for the campaign;

one group of participating drinks or food;

tracking stock profitability.

The use of a particular tool depends on the target audience of the establishment and the project budget. On average, you should budget about 100 thousand rubles for promotion in order to quickly gain an audience.

Step 8. Recruitment

For a small bar with 50 seats you will need to hire:

2 bartenders. Bartenders serve customers at the bar, prepare cocktails, and are responsible for the cash register.

2 cooks. Cooks coordinate the work of the kitchen, develop recipes for dishes and menus, control food costs, are responsible for preparing dishes, storing food, and work at one or more kitchen stations depending on the distribution of responsibilities.

4 waiters. Waiters take orders in the hall, provide customer service, monitor the cleanliness of the hall, set the table, accept payment for the order, are well versed in the menu and can give recommendations to visitors.

2 dishwashers. Dishwashers are responsible for the use and maintenance of dishwashing equipment, ensuring the cleanliness of dishes, the kitchen and the living room.

2 guards. Security guards monitor public order and quickly resolve emergencies.

Accountant. The accountant maintains financial records of all transactions and works remotely.

Administrator. The administrator organizes the work process, hires and manages staff, is responsible for marketing policy, monitors the profit-loss ratio, receives and plans reservations and pre-orders, and controls the work of staff.

Requirements for public institution staff:

all employees must have sanitary records with appropriate marks;

Before being admitted to the workplace, all employees must undergo training and study safety instructions for operating the equipment.

To improve the quality of service, it is necessary to regularly certify personnel and send them for advanced training. To avoid staff turnover, decent wages should be established. On average, the wage fund will be 350 thousand rubles.

Step 9. Making a financial plan

At this stage, we answer the most important question - how much does it cost to open a bar from scratch? To get an accurate calculation, it is recommended to develop a business plan that will take into account all costs in terms of current prices for a specific region and a specific idea. Speaking in the abstract, to open a bar “without bells and whistles” you will need about 1 million rubles.

Initial investment to open a bar

	Amount, rub.
Initial payment for rent of premises
Room renovation
Furniture and decor
Equipment
Business registration, preparation of permits

Purchase of raw materials

In addition to the initial costs, the project has monthly costs that should also be planned for. Monthly costs are divided into variable and fixed costs. Variable costs consist of the costs of ingredients that are used in preparing dishes, as well as payment for the facilities consumed during the production process (water, gas, electricity, sewerage). To simplify financial calculations, variable costs can be calculated based on the amount of the average check (1000 rubles) and a fixed trade markup of 250%.

Fixed expenses consist of rent, utilities, payroll, advertising costs, taxes and depreciation. The amount of depreciation charges is determined by the linear method, based on the useful life of fixed assets of 5 years.

Fixed costs

	Name	Amount per month, rub.
	Rent

	Communal payments
	Depreciation

	Payroll with deductions

Now let's calculate how much you can earn from the bar. With a capacity of 60 people and a 65% occupancy rate, you can expect 1,170 visitors per month. With an average check of 1,000 rubles per person, monthly revenue will be 1,170,000 rubles, and net profit will be approximately 350,000 rubles. At this level of profit, the initial investment will be able to pay off in six months. In this case, the profitability will be 43%. For beer restaurants, pubs, bars, the maximum payback period is 2-2.5 years.

Step 10. Consider the risks

Any type of business is characterized by risks. What difficulties can you encounter when opening your own bar?

Poor choice of location and bar premises. You can easily overestimate traffic or underestimate the competitive environment. When choosing a room, some nuances may be missed that will appear during work. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully approach the analysis of the outlet and take into account various factors;

Increased prices for raw materials, unscrupulous suppliers, low-quality raw materials. In the first case, there is a risk of increased costs and, as a consequence, the selling price, which may negatively affect demand. In the second case, the risk is associated with interruptions in production. It is possible to reduce the likelihood of these threats by choosing suppliers wisely and including in the contract all the necessary conditions that provide for financial liability of the supplier in case of their violation;

Competitors' reaction. Because the food service market is quite saturated and competitive, the behavior of competitors can have a strong influence. To minimize it, it is necessary to form your own customer base, conduct constant market monitoring, introduce customer loyalty programs, create competitive advantages and unique offers;

Refusal to provide rental premises or increase in rental costs. To reduce this risk, it is necessary to enter into a long-term lease agreement and carefully select the landlord;

Introduction........................................................ ........................................................ ...... 3

1. Features of business planning in small and medium-sized enterprises... 4

2. Development of a business plan for organizing the activities of a coffee shop.................................. 7

Summary................................................. ........................................................ ....... 7

2.1. Initiator of the project................................................ ................................ 8

2.1.1.Legal description of Coffee Trade LLC.................................... 8

2.1.2. Main activities of Coffee Trade LLC.................................... 8

2.2. Description of the project................................................... .................................. 9

2.3. Description of services................................................ .................................... 10

2.4. Market analysis................................................ ....................................... eleven

2.4.1 General characteristics of the industry................................................... .... eleven

2.4.2 Assessment of the existing market and characteristics of competitors.. 12

2.5. Marketing plan................................................ ........................... 16

2.5.1 Consumers................................................... ................................. 16

2.5.2Marketing strategy.................................................... ............. 17

2.5.3Pricing policy.................................................... ........................... 17

2.6. Production plan................................................ ...................... 19

2.6.1 Equipment................................................... .............................. 19

2.6.2. Production capacity................................................ .. 21

2.6.3 Raw materials and materials................................................. ....................... 21

2.7. Organizational plan................................................... ....................... 23

2.8. Financial plan................................................ .................................. 25

3. Risk assessment when organizing a business.................................................... ..... 28

3.1. Entrepreneurial risk as an economic category.................................. 28

3.2. Fundamentals of managing and reducing business risks....... 30

3.3. Risk assessment when opening a coffee shop.................................................... .. 34

Conclusion................................................. ........................................................ 40

Bibliography......................... ................... ........................ 41

INTRODUCTION

There is no entrepreneurship without risk. New economic conditions pose new problems for the already poorly developed business in Russia. There is a need to search for non-traditional types of business activities and conduct unusual operations, which further increases the degree of risk.

In any market transaction, the risk must be calculated to the maximum acceptable limit.

The relevance of this work lies in identifying methods and techniques for managing business risks. All market assessments are multivariate in nature, so continuous improvement of risk management is an objective and necessary law.

Knowledge of approaches to analyzing risk problems and its assessment is necessary for every owner and manager. Risk management is both a science and an art. The risk management process includes goal setting, marketing, and management. To ensure a systematic approach to risk management, the analysis must also be systematic. In this analysis, risks are examined in their interrelationship, taking into account the likelihood and characteristics of the manifestation of a particular risk.

The purpose of this course work is to develop a business plan and study the level of business risk reduction.

2. DEVELOPMENT OF A BUSINESS PLAN FOR THE ORGANIZATION OF ACTIVITIES

COFFEE SHOPS

Summary

Over the past two or three years, coffee shops in Russia have managed to grow into a sociocultural phenomenon. However, in addition to this, coffee shops are not only a successful business, but also one that today has enormous development potential. At the moment, the market segment in Kirov is represented by several companies that have begun active expansion. But even they are not able to satisfy consumer demand. This is what makes this market segment attractive for investment.

For the coffee shop, it is planned to rent a room measuring 60 square meters. m., located at the address: Kirov, Gorkogo 5-a, shopping center “Jam-Moll”, 5th floor. This location is very convenient - one of the new and largest shopping centers in Kirov, which is visited by thousands of people every day.

The total cost of the project today is estimated at 1.5 million. rubles The economic efficiency of this project is quite high and is represented by the following main indicators: the payback period is 4 months, the expected net profit from the project is 3.3 million rubles. The profitability of the project is 130%. The project is financed from its own funds; with a subsequent increase in the volume of services provided, it is possible to attract borrowed funds for additional financing.

Main activities of Coffee Trade LLC

The purpose of creating “CoffeeHause” is to generate profit from the following types of activities:

Supply and production of coffee drinks for retail sale
high-quality coffee varieties under the brand names “Breda”, “Illy”, “Dell”
Arabica", "Lavazza", owned by the Italian concerns "Procaffe"
SpA", "LavazzaSpA" and "IllycaffeSpA";

Supply of a wide range of classic and exclusive types
tea;

Supply and installation of coffee equipment from one of the largest
Italian manufacturers of professional coffee machines.

2.2. Project Description

The goal of the project is to create an exclusive coffee shop “in the spirit of Italian traditions” in the city of Kirov.

The creation of a coffee shop is planned to be carried out on the territory of the Jam-Moll shopping center, located at Gorky 5-a.

It is planned to conclude an agreement with the administration of the shopping center, according to which the premises of 60 m 2 occupied by the coffee shop are leased for a period of 5 years.

This premises does not require reconstruction or repair, as it is located in a new building, and according to a specialist, it is in good condition.

As you know, the success of a coffee shop depends 50% on a good location. According to our monitoring, this location of the coffee shop is the most favorable, since visitors to the shopping center want not only to make purchases, but also to relax.

The interior focuses on coffee as the main attribute. The emphasis is placed on impeccable service, the original design of the dishes offered, the unusual design of the premises, professionally trained waiters and a special mood. This will be a classic style.

It is also planned to conclude an agreement with the Italian company WegaS. L. for delivery (see Appendix), according to which the necessary equipment will be purchased and the supply of Lavazza brand coffee necessary for the successful operation of the coffee shop will be negotiated.

2.3. Description of services

The CoffeeHause coffee shop is presented in such a way that the visitor is offered several types of coffee and confectionery products.

The coffee shop will sell coffee-containing drinks. The drinks will be of high quality and brewed according to the original recipe.

Table 1 - Main types of drinks

According to a sociological survey, the most popular coffee-containing drinks for residents of the city of Kirov are Classic Espresso and Cappuccino, the average cost of which varies from 70 to 120 rubles per cup.

2.4. Market analysis

2.4.1 General characteristics of the industry

Over the past two or three years, coffee shops in Russia have managed to grow into a sociocultural phenomenon.

The drink has ceased to be just a utilitarian morning stimulant and has become a companion to a completely European type of pastime: floor-to-ceiling windows, a special atmosphere, quiet music, dozens of types of coffee. However, in addition to all this, coffee shops are not only a successful business, but also one that today has enormous development potential. The specificity of the situation is that there are already several network operators on the market that are constantly expanding their presence; It is also known that several more networks are planning to begin active expansion. The reasons why chain operators choose this particular format are clear: it is a well-promoted brand, uniform service standards, a similar range of products in each chain establishment, the ability to reduce costs through wholesale purchases and a simpler solution to the problem of brand recognition.

According to the results of a study of consumer preferences of coffee shops by the marketing agency Stepbystep, about 52% of respondents (who visit coffee shops) visit coffee shops several times a month, 35% almost every day, 20% once a week.

The number of those who entered a coffee shop for the first time is very small, about 3%. This may mean that the circle of people who like to spend their time in a coffee shop has practically formed.

39% of respondents visit coffee shops at any/different times, 26% - in the evening, 16% of respondents - during lunch. Morning, as a separate answer option, came in last place (4%). It seems that for the majority of city residents, coffee shops have not become a place where you can run to have a drink before starting your work day

coffee. They still remain a kind of leisure element. In Russia, despite the free consumption of wine and stronger drinks, coffee is also very popular. Today, the coffee market in Russia can be considered not yet formed, as evidenced by the constant changes in the structure and participants of this market. 2009 was marked by the following factors: a reduction in the range of products on the market (operators left only the most popular brands of coffee in their offerings); decrease in sales volumes, which was associated with the financial crisis; rising prices; increasing the market share of domestic producers and cheap counterfeits.

These trends were associated with an increase in world coffee prices, the financial crisis, as well as tax and customs policies in the Russian Federation. In addition, one of the important trends today is the fact that consumers have become more demanding not only in the quality of coffee, but also in the quality of service and the interior of the coffee shop.

Thus, the growth of the coffee market, despite the activity of its participants, was delayed by the low purchasing power of the population, crises in the financial market and a number of “technical difficulties” (taxation, customs difficulties, supply disruptions, etc.) associated with running the coffee business. According to most expert estimates, the overall size of the coffee market has increased by an average of 1 1 -15%.

2.4.2 Assessment of the existing market and characteristics of competitors

The main competitive factors in the market for services with a socio-cultural focus are currently: price, quality of services offered.

At the same time, different factors prevail for different groups of consumers.

The price factor is the main one for consumers with an average level of income who have a need for social and entertainment services.

Service quality is more important for high-income consumers who primarily need a higher level of service.

There is not a single catering establishment or cafe in the building of the Jam-Moll shopping center. The main competitors in this segment in Kirov are: the Globus System coffee shop chain.

A comparative analysis of competitors is presented in Table 2.

Table 2 -		Competitive analysis
Name		Quality service	Range	Prevailing contingent	Specifics
"Golden age"	average	high	provision European and Japanese cuisine	population with income level average and above average	full list add. services (bathroom, satellite television, radiotelephone, Internet); interior in classical
Cafe "Shokoladnitsa"	average	average	European cuisine, different kinds drinks, cakes, coffee	population with income level average and above average; students; guests	incomplete list add. services (bathroom, Internet); each cafe has individual

Continuation of Table 2

Name

Quality

service

Range

Prevailing

contingent

Specifics

"Globus Systems"

average

drinks, others

types of drinks,

light lunches,

confectionery

population with

income level

average and above

average;

students; guests

incomplete list

add. services (bathroom,

Internet);

interior in style

classic

"Coffee House"

average

high

confectionery

population with

income level

average and above

average;

students; guests

incomplete list

add. services (bathroom,

satellite

TV);

interior in style

Since the external and internal environment changes under the influence of the enterprise’s activities and other factors, it is necessary to identify the limitations, strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise in a changing environment. And based on the results obtained, the enterprise must make changes to the chosen strategy. A SWOT analysis will help identify and correlate limitations and opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of an enterprise (Table 3).

Table 3 - SWOT analysis

Competitor 1

"Globus System"

Competitor 2.

"Golden age"

Coffee house "CoffeeHause"

Strengths

a wide range of,

good reputation

buyers, convenient

location

regular customers, convenient

location, high level of service

Modern equipment,

convenient location,

high quality goods,

low prices, high

service level

Weak sides

medium quality

products, deviation from the main goal - a coffee shop, staff turnover

Average prices; a lack of

working personnel, low assortment

Not yet formed

coffee shop image, lack

regular customers

Possibilities

Improve quality

products, replacement

equipment

Improve product quality

Expansion of the range,

attracting investors,

regular suppliers.

Threats

Possibility of appearance

new competitors,

dissatisfaction

customer quality

products,

customer dissatisfaction

choice of products,

change in consumer

preferences,

Changing consumer

preferences, appearance

new competitors.

So, from the analysis we can conclude that the coffee shop will be competitive in this market and the consumer segment will be diverse.

2.5. Marketing Plan 2.5.1 Consumers

The coffee shop being created is aimed primarily at consumers with high and middle income levels who feel the need to provide quality services to this market segment.

In accordance with the analysis of the existing market for similar types of services, the following main groups of potential consumers can be roughly identified:

Residents of nearby houses;

Visitors to the Jam-Moll shopping center;

Russian business representatives;

Students;

Guests of the city.

Today, such a group of consumers as “city guests” and “Russian business representatives” mainly consists of managers and specialists of domestic and foreign companies, as well as representatives of leading financial institutions in Russia and Western Europe who are on business visits. Their number in the city of Kirov is significant due to the following factors:

A large number of large enterprises of regional, state and international scale;

Holding frequent exhibitions, etc.

Thus, the structure of potential consumers allows for sustainable demand.

2.5.2 Marketing strategy

The shopping center where the CoffeeHause coffee shop will be located is not yet heavily covered by companies providing food services, and there is almost no competition there. The Jam-Moll shopping center is visited by more than 1,000 visitors a day.

The main goal of the designed enterprise is market penetration and subsequent expansion of market share. The main strategy of the enterprise is a comprehensive strategy to provide high quality products at average prices, as well as expanding the range of products. Based on this, the marketing strategy is chosen to expand demand by stimulating sales volume, pricing policy and non-price factors of competition, and creating a positive image of the cafe.

2.5.3 Pricing policy

When analyzing pricing, you need to consider:

cost of goods,
competitors' prices for similar or substitute products,
price determined by the demand for a given product.

Pricing in the company will be based on the principle: the price must cover all costs. Based on the goals and marketing strategy, as well as taking into account the elasticity of demand, pricing will be set using the “cost + profit” method, taking into account the amount of expected demand and the behavior of competitors. Prices for pancake products will be calculated based on the level of demand and costs and target profit.

An important aspect when opening a new enterprise is advertising. In this case it will be as follows:

Advertisement in print media: newspaper “ProGorod” 1/2 page
13.2 thousand rub. once a month. Costs will be 158,400 rubles, with a discount
150,000 rub;

Newspaper “Source of News” 1/4 page 6200 rubles, 2 times a month. The costs will be 148,800 rubles, taking into account the discount of 140,000 rubles.

2.6. Production plan

The coffee house “CoffeeHause” has a premises of 60 square meters. m at Gorky 5-a, Jam-Moll shopping center. The lease agreement is concluded for 5 years and includes utility costs. Thus, rental costs per year will be: 54,000 rubles. *12=648,000 rubles, Expenses for interior design (including furniture for 22 seats and a bar counter) amounted to 110000 rub.

The company's suppliers will be:

"LavazzaSpA" supplying coffee beans.

KMK LLC is a milk supplier.

MetroCash&Carry LLC is a supplier of packaged sugar.

Confectionery factory "BKK".

The process of selling coffee drinks consists of the following steps:

Receiving an order;

Preparation of the drink;

Submitting an order.

The process of preparing a cup of coffee takes 2-3 minutes.

2.6.1 Equipment

The following equipment will be used to sell products:

Table 4 - Equipment for organizing a coffee shop

Equipment identification	Number of units, pcs	Unit price, rub	Total
Coffee machine	2	60000	120000
Coffee grinder	2	7000	14000
Refrigeration showcase	1	25500	25500
Ice maker	1	22000	22000
Water softener	1	10000	10000
Cash machine	1	3000	3000
Computer	1	18000	18000
Split system	1	12000	12000
TV system	1	25000	25000
Coffee cups	44	10	440
Dessert plates	44	23	1012
Coffee spoon	44	6	264
dessert spoon	44	8	352
Bathroom	2	52000	104000
Total	372568

The annual cost of repairs and operation of equipment will be 5% of the cost of the equipment, i.e. 18,525 rubles.

The average useful life of this equipment is 3 years (36 months).

This should also include the costs of decorating a coffee shop. Depreciation rate for equipment using the linear accrual method = (1: 36) * 100% = 2.78% per month and 32% per year.

Depreciation deductions are 0.0278* (372568+110000) = 13415 rubles. per month and 160,980 rubles per year.

Total sum of fixed costs per year is: 160980+18525+648000+300800= RUB 1,128,305

2.6.2. Production capacity

The enterprise, with existing equipment and personnel, can sell 100 servings of cappuccino and 70 servings of expresso, 10 servings of coffee of the day, 10 servings of Maccato, 10 servings of red ai, 10 servings of café latte, T .O. per year - 36,000 cappuccino coffee, 25,200 expresso coffee and 3,600 servings of other types. 75,600 cups of coffee will be sold per year, which is 18,900 cups per quarter.

2.6.3 Raw materials and materials

The following materials were used to produce products and provide services:

The confectionery article is presented with “Mini” cakes in the amount of 250 pieces in 10 product names.

The total amount of variable costs will be 1,472,424 rubles per year.

Thus, full cost products sold = fixed costs + variable costs = 1128305+1472424=2600729 rub. Average cost of 1 cup of coffee = 35 rubles.

Based on the pricing strategy, the average cost of a cup of coffee

in the CoffeeHause coffee shop it will cost 35 (35*150%) = 90 rubles.

Planned performance indicators of the enterprise per year. Let's define revenue from product sales enterprises according to the following formula: BP = C x K,

where: C - product sales price, rub.; K - quantity of products sold, l. BP = 6804000 (rub)

Gross profit:

where: C is the total cost of products sold, rub.

VP = 6804000-2600729 = 4203271 (rub.)

Then the net profit

PE = VP - income tax

ChP-4203271 -840654= 3362616 (rub.)

We determine production profitability using the formula:

R o = state of emergency/excess 100%

Then P o = 3362616 \ 2600729 x 100% = 130%

Table 6 - Summary table of planned performance indicators per year

2.7. Organizational plan

The CoffeeHause coffee shop will be a limited liability company, operating on the basis of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, adopted by the State Duma and approved by the Federation Council. The company will be a legal entity and act on the basis of the Charter, will have its own property, and an independent balance sheet.

The director will manage the activities of the enterprise.

Director - is a financially responsible person, he acts on behalf of the enterprise, represents its interests in all enterprises of various forms of ownership. For business activities, concludes contracts, opens a bank account, issues powers of attorney.

The director of the enterprise, in accordance with labor legislation, issues orders and instructions, hires and dismisses citizens involved in labor activities, and applies incentives and penalties to them. Higher education, 3 years of experience in a managerial position.

Accountant carries out operations for receiving, accounting, issuing and storing funds. He is the financially responsible person, monitors the work and the correct maintenance of documentation. An accountant must organize and carry out accounting, verify the accuracy of the information received, and monitor compliance with the law when spending monetary and material resources. Keeps track of incoming funds, inventory, fixed assets and timely reflection on the relevant accounting accounts of transactions related to their movement, as well as accounting for production and circulation costs, execution

cost estimates. Higher education, knowledge of accounting skills in trade. Work experience of 2 years.

The number of production personnel will be determined based on functional feasibility. The remuneration system will be built on the basis of official salaries and depend on the amount of time actually worked and the achievement of the final results of the enterprise.

Table 7 - Number of personnel

The UST rate is 26%, so the following is transferred per month for social needs: 82000*0.26=21320. Monthly deductions for wages are: 82,000 + 21,320 = 103,320 rubles. and per year will be 1239840 rubles.

Opening hours: 10.00 to 22.00

2.8. Financial plan

The financial plan is based on the forecast of the marketing plan and is based on the capabilities of the production plan.

Based on the calculation results, the project is profitable and its payback period = Necessary capital investments / emergency

Project payback period = 1128305/3362616 = 0.4

The project involves the use of own funds in the amount of 1,500 thousand rubles. without borrowing funds.

The income and expense plan is calculated for the months of the first year of activity, quarters of the second, half of the third year, it reflects sustainable profit.

Table 8 - Financial plan for 2011

Cash flows, thousand rubles	2011
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December
Income:
Own funds	1500
Borrowed funds	0
Revenues from sales	0	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567
Total:	1500	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567	567
Payments:
Balance:	808,7	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3	248,3
Balance with accumulation:	808,7	1057	1305,3	1553,6	1801,9	2050,2	2298,5	2546,8	2795,1	3043,4	3291,7	3540

Table 9 - Cash flow for 2012-2013

Cash flows, thousand rubles.	year 2012				year 2013
I	II	III	IV	I	II
INCOME:
Own funds
Borrowed funds
Revenue from real	1701	1701	1701	1701	3402	3402
Total:	1701	1701	1701	1701	3402	3402
PAYMENTS:
Settlements with equipment suppliers
Annually renewable fixed costs, incl.
Salary with taxes	310,2	310,2	310,2	310,2	620,4	620,4
Rent	162	162	162	162	216	216
Advertising	75,3	75,3	75,3	75,3	150,6	301,2
Settlements with the coffee supplier	199,5	199,5	199,5	199,5	399	798
Settlements with milk supplier	40,5	40,5	40,5	40,5	81	162
Settlements with sugar supplier	12,6	12,6	12,6	12,6	25,2	50,4
Settlements with the confectionery supplier	108	108	108	108	216	432
Depreciation	40,5	40,5	40,5	40,5	81	162
other expenses	15	15	15	15	30	60
Total:	963,60	963,60	963,60	963,60	1819,20	2802,00
BALANCE:	737,40	737,40	737,40	737,40	1582,80	600,00
BALANCE WITH ACCUMULATION:	4277,40	5014,80	5752, 20	6489,60	8072,40	8672,40

3. RISK ASSESSMENT WHEN ORGANIZING A BUSINESS

3.1. Entrepreneurial risk as an economic category

The implementation of entrepreneurial activity is always associated with the uncertainty of the situation and the variability of the economic environment, which, in turn, affects the achievement of the expected final result. According to the basic principle of the activities of a commercial organization (manufacturing enterprise, commercial bank, trading company and others), the desire to obtain as much profit as possible is limited by the possibility of incurring losses. This is where the concept of risk comes into play. So, the implementation of entrepreneurship in any form is associated with risk, which is usually called economic or entrepreneurial.

The concept of “economic risk” has an abstract nature, since it does not exist objectively in nature, i.e. Regardless of human consciousness, nevertheless, its essence is intuitively clear to every person who has at least some experience in the economic life of society. In particular, the role of risk in the economic life of society is determined by the fact that people who have had negative experiences of economic activity in the past try to avoid similar situations in the future. With the development of commodity-money relations, the influence of risk extended to the financial sphere of economic life of society. Thus, both depositors who lost their savings due to the bankruptcy of a bank, and bankers who have had bad experience in investing their resources, take actions aimed at reducing the likelihood of losses in the future. Thus, risk is directly related to the economic life of society, and, therefore, there is every reason to assert that risk is a sub-economic category.

Currently, the problems of objective assessment and risk reduction methods are quite well developed by both foreign and domestic scientists. However, it is here that there are unrealized opportunities to solve the main political economic problem. This is due, first of all, to the fact that risk is certainly taken into account by the consciousness of every participant in economic processes in society. In addition, the direct subjective assessment of the risk situation as a whole is determined by the behavior of each participant: the degree of economic activity is determined, the issue of preferences is decided, etc. All this necessitates a careful consideration by economic science of the issue of the characteristics of the subjective perception of risk.

The specificity of the economic aspect of risk is due to the fact that risk is identified with possible material damage associated with the implementation of the chosen economic, organizational, technical solution, with force majeure circumstances caused by the environment, with unfavorable changes in market conditions.

Economic science considers officially three different approaches to understanding risk.

Firstly, in the mass consciousness, risk appears in the form of possible failure, danger, material and other losses that may occur as a result of the implementation of the chosen decision.

Secondly, risk is understood as “a course of action in an unclear, uncertain environment” or as “a situational characteristic of an activity, its outcome and possible adverse consequences in cases of failure.”

A third approach to understanding risk is proposed by the American economist Frank Knight. It defines risk as the possibility of positive (chance) and negative (damage, loss) deviations in the process of activity from expected values.

In the most general sense, entrepreneurial risk is caused by the possibility of deviation of the obtained result from the planned one, due to changes in many factors affecting the enterprise from the inside and outside. The more accurate the calculations, the higher the degree of agreement between estimates and forecasts and actual data. A positive deviation means a chance to receive additional profit compared to the initial calculations. A negative deviation means a chance of incurring losses. Every chance of profit is countered by the possibility of loss. This is where the concept of risk comes into play.

Consequently, more specifically, entrepreneurial risk can be characterized as the likelihood that an entrepreneur will incur losses in the form of additional expenses in excess of those provided for by the forecast, program of his actions, or will receive income below those that he expected when implementing any of the alternative solutions in the conditions uncertainty accompanying the activities of the enterprise.

3.2. Fundamentals of managing and reducing business risks

With the development of civilization, technology, and the increasing role of the human factor, the importance of risk management increases significantly.

For an entrepreneur, it is equally important to manage political, financial technological, personnel risks, ensure fire safety, actions in emergency situations, environmental protection, etc.

Risk management must be integrated into the overall organizational process and must have its own strategy, tactics, and operational implementation. It is important not only to manage

risks, but also periodically review the measures and means of such management.

High efficiency of resource expenditure when implementing a risk management program can only be ensured within the framework of a systematic approach.

Risk management becomes relevant once a risk problem is identified. In this case, the results of risk analysis and modeling should be used. In relation to risk, as a probable failure, the following control actions are possible: prevention, reduction, damage compensation, absorption.

Prevention (elimination) is usually called the exclusion of a source of risk as a result of targeted actions of the risk subject. In risk prevention, two approaches can also be distinguished: broad and narrow. Risk reduction (control) is the reduction in the likelihood of a risk source occurring as a result of the actions of risk subjects.

Risk reduction can be carried out using various methods, including through the use of such well-known methods as diversification, securitization, and limiting:

diversification - distribution of risk between several objects, areas of activity, etc.;

securitization - dividing a lending operation into two parts (developing loan terms and concluding an agreement; lending) with each of these parts being carried out by different banks;

limiting - setting limits on investments, batches of goods purchased, loans issued, etc.

Financial engineering refers to the use of financial derivatives to manage risk. Financial derivatives (derivative instruments) are financial instruments that are based on other, simpler financial instruments.

Abroad, it is believed that financial engineering has already become sufficiently established as a separate financial specialty. At the same time, well-known foreign studies of risk management methods leave out of sight such important areas as the use of special forms of transactions (factoring, letter of credit, etc.), the use of an organizational and legal form to reduce the risk of a market entity, etc. This made it possible to distinguish non-fund insurance, including (among other things) financial engineering as an independent scientific and educational discipline. In the non-fund form of insurance, insurance costs are included in the price during the initial price distribution.

Non-fund insurance is a closed relationship between participants in a commercial transaction or project to reduce possible damage by reducing the vulnerability of risk objects through specially designed financial instruments, types of transactions, performance of roles, etc.

Fund insurance is more economically feasible if measures to prevent and reduce risk are not effective enough and/or are expensive.

Insurance (stock insurance) is called

redistributive closed relations of participants in an insurance contract in monetary form regarding compensation for damage.

Self-insurance is the assumption of risk, the creation by the risk subject of a special fund to compensate for a probable loss. Risk absorption is the acceptance of risk without additional measures of prevention, mitigation or insurance.

It is necessary to make a fundamental distinction between self-insurance and refusal to insure without taking any measures (risk absorption). Risk absorption is often done if a large state or municipal enterprise has the opportunity to include most of the losses in current expenses.

Risk absorption is typical for the current socio-economic situation in Russia for the following reasons:

lack of financial resources for insurance for both legal entities and individuals;

the relative unreliability of some insurers in conditions of political instability, inflation, and the lack of profitable and reliable investment instruments.

These circumstances make risk management especially relevant for entrepreneurs and should be considered at hierarchical levels: the state and its subsystems (political, social, regional, industry), financial and industrial groups and holdings, enterprises, families and citizens.

The risk management process includes goal setting, marketing, and management.

Risk-goal setting in risk management is the process and result of choosing the best goal in risk management, taking into account available resources and the limitations of the current socio-economic and market situation,

Risk marketing is the choice of methods and tools for risk management for certain management purposes, taking into account real-life restrictions on the use of constructive, technological, organizational (occupational health and safety), financial instruments available to the risk subject in a particular situation.

Risk management - maintaining a balance between resources, people, goals in the process of achieving certain risk goals using

constructive, technological, organizational (occupational health and safety) and financial instruments found in the process of risk marketing.

Risk management, like any management, must include planning, motivation, organization and control.

It is important to remember that risk management is both a science and an art. The more original the project, the greater the role of art in risk management. Therefore, the effectiveness of risk management can be increased not only through the use of scientific methods, but also through the creative success of the risk subject.

Due to the increasing complexity of the conditions of production and economic activity, the increasing diversity of sources and possible consequences of risk, they must be considered in a systematic connection with other factors and parameters of the entrepreneurial activity of market entities.

The need for a systematic approach is also associated with the growing costs of control and risk management at all hierarchical levels (state, enterprise, individual). These expenses reduce the efficiency of social production and can affect the socio-economic situation in the country.

3.3. Risk assessment when opening a coffee shop

Taking into account possible changes in the market situation, we will consider possible risks that could lead to the loss of part of the company’s capital, as well as to additional costs:

1. There is a possibility of a decrease in the overall level of purchasing power, but, unfortunately, we cannot predict such a situation at the proper level because it depends on many factors and

events in the country. We, in turn, can only reduce our prices to the minimum possible.

2. Inflation is always present. Depending on her height we will
raise prices, but not more than the prices of competitors. This can also include
risks associated with an increase in the dollar exchange rate. Since spare parts for
equipment have a currency valuation, then the cost of repairs increases with
increase in the dollar exchange rate (operational currency risk).

Calculation of losses for operational currency risk.

The business plan includes the average cost of repairing 1 piece of equipment. Since the cost of parts is tied to the dollar exchange rate, therefore, the cost of repairs is directly proportional to the increase in the exchange rate. It is necessary to include in the plan the amount of inflation (1% per month) or allocate an amount in US dollars for repairs. Operational currency risk in our country can appear not only every day, but even several times a day. Therefore, we estimate the probability of its occurrence at 0.5. Let's assume that we have included 1,500 rubles in the plan. + 1%, added for inflation and included a risk cushion of 4% of the amount.

Then the amount of funds we risk will be:

(1500 + (1500 / 100) x 1 + (1500 / 100) x 4)) x 0.5 = 787.50 rub.

If inflation is higher than our forecast level (for example, 2%), then our company will not incur losses, since the model includes a risk cushion. But if the inflation jump is much higher than the forecast level, then the company’s losses will remain uncovered.

As a measure to prevent losses associated with this risk, it is advisable to create a reserve fund in US dollars.

3. Activation of old competitors, emergence of new ones, for this
it will be necessary to adjust promotion methods, conduct
marketing research, concentration of efforts, increased advertising.

4. Low qualifications of personnel - a risk is possible and can lead to
an increase in accidents and defects, a decrease in rhythm and volumes
production. It is neutralized by careful selection of personnel,
produced by the founders.

5. Rising prices for raw materials - neutralized by preliminary purchases
resources for the annual program, which allows reducing costs for
purchase of raw materials.

6. Risk associated with equipment theft (applies to
entrepreneurial risk).

7. Risk associated with equipment failure
(entrepreneurial risk).

This can occur due to sharp fluctuations in voltage in the electrical network, non-compliance with equipment operation standards, and wear and tear of equipment. The likelihood of this risk occurring will be significantly reduced if the following measures are taken:

work with equipment through a surge protector that stabilizes the voltage;

Familiarize company employees with operating standards
equipment;

Inspect and replace equipment promptly
worn parts.

Timely identification of enterprise risks will significantly reduce the amount of damage incurred. For example, only preventing internal man-made risks and operational currency risk will save 2149.4 rubles. + 787.50= 2936.90 rub. Risks may overlap each other, and some may lead to others. After some time, as a rule, new risks arise in the enterprise.

8. Refusal of the customer to pay for the product (relates to a commercial risk). In practice this rarely happens. Sometimes situations arise where payment for an order is delayed.

Let us also assess the level and types of threats:

1. Significant increase in rent from outside
administration (business risk).

2. Deterioration in the living standards of the population, which will affect everyone
types of business activities, including coffee. This
will lead to a decrease in demand for coffee (commercial risk).

3. Internal man-made threats, which include fires
and accidents from improper handling of electrical appliances (coffee makers),
failure to comply with their technical conditions, fire of wiring, etc.
(entrepreneurial risk).

It should be noted that according to the legislation of the Russian Federation, the entrepreneur is liable to the customer regardless of whether the damage was caused by his fault or by the fault of third parties or circumstances.

Statistics show that internal man-made risks (fires and accidents from improper handling of electrical appliances) occur on average 2 times a year. Then the damage from their occurrence is determined as the product of the value of the property (C) located in the disaster zone by the damage factor (U). Not counting the cost of office repairs, the risk per month will be: 1/12 x 1790 = $149.16, or approximately RUB 4,298.98. If the office is equipped with a fire safety system (thermal sensors, etc.), then the probability of a fire occurring will be once every two years. Then the amount of savings from taking fire safety measures will be: 149.16 - 0.5 / 12 x 1790 = $74.58, or 2149.4 rubles.

4. The threat of power outages, which is especially important for
small town in winter. In this case, the risk again appears,
associated with failure to complete an order on time (business risk).

Business risk associated with power outages. The likelihood of its occurrence increases significantly in winter, when the load in the electrical circuit increases. In this case, the entire work plan is disrupted, which leads to failure to complete the work on time. It is advisable not to indicate any penalties in the application for sewing work, which will only increase losses. For example, some large medical institutions have their own mini-generators for generating electricity for this purpose.

5. Social internal threats, which include strikes,
associated with improper distribution of material resources from
completed orders.

6. Threat associated with competition. This is possible if
a competing enterprise will open in a location more convenient for residents
(for example, in the city center), will have staff with a higher
qualifications, better equipment (or newer) and lower
prices.

7. Internal threat of a physical nature, namely: large
the number of simultaneously working sewing equipment creates a high
noise level, which leads to deterioration in the health of working personnel
(environmental risk).

The risks are shown in Fig. 1.

Risks that are not included in this enterprise model:

1. Investment risks, since the company does not conduct
investment policy.

2. Credit risks, since the company is not engaged in
lending. At some points, the necessary funds for

the purchase of raw materials is taken from the enterprise’s cash desk, or it is the personal funds of the director who is responsible for administrative functions.

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CONCLUSION

So, risk management is one of the components of the overall organizational production process, therefore it must be integrated into this process and must have its own strategy, tactics, and operational implementation. At the same time, it is important not only to manage risks, but also to periodically review the measures and means of such management.

High efficiency of resource expenditure when implementing a risk management program can only be ensured within the framework of a systematic approach. This approach in risk management is the most common.

One of the important components of the risk management system is the management of financial risks that any production faces in the course of its activities. An important point is the limited financial resources. However, there is financial risk insurance, which is quite common in developed countries.

It is equally important for an enterprise to manage political, financial, technological, and personnel risks, ensure fire safety, manage actions in emergency situations, environmental protection, etc.

BIBLIOGRAPHICAL LIST

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Batrakova L.G. Economic analysis of the activities of a commercial bank. M: “Logos”, 2008.

Blank I.A. Fundamentals of financial management. Kyiv: Nika-Center, 2004. T. I.

Dubrov A.M. Modeling risk situations in economics and business. M.: Finance and Statistics, 2006.

Kadinskaya O.A. Financial risk management. M.: Publishing house of JSC "Consultbanker", 2006.

Entrepreneurship, business, risk // Market economics: Textbook. M., B. Raizberg, 2003.

Romanov V. The concept of risks and their classification as the main element of risk theory // Investments in Russia. 2006. No. 12.

Financial management: theory and practice / Ed. E.S. Stoyanova. M.: Perspective, 2007.

Khokhlov N.V. Risk management: Textbook. manual for universities. M.: UNITY- DANA, 2005.